I want to talk a little bit about a thought process you should go through in every situation at the table. Poker is a dynamic game, and one of the most costly and common pitfalls is to start playing on auto pilot. If it's something you doesn't do already, you have to start asking yourself the following questions before making a decision:
1. What is my opponent's range?
2. What is my perceived range?
3. How does my actual hand do?
Being able to answer these questions well is one of the most important skills in poker, and you will be surprised how often you can find more profitable and creative lines, rather than to throw out a "standard" bet. I'm not advocating any FPS, but to actually understand why you make the moves you do. I doesn't agree with a lot of other regulars these days, who says NLH is a dying game and close to "solved". Yes, the games are tougher than a few years ago, but still the games changes and there will always be room for beating them. A lot of these regs have been used to "standard lines" that used to work out well, but because of approaching the game in a lazy way, they have problems following the trends and changes in the dynamics. To survive as a poker player you have to stay ahead of the marked and being able to think for yourself, no matter how many instructional sites that pops up. Well, let's get started:
What is my opponent's range?
To answer this question is often not as easy as it sounds. Based on your observations of your opponent(s) tendencies, you have to make an educated guess. Is he likely to have a polarized range in this situation, and in that case; how well balanced is it between bluffs and value hands? Is he betting thin for value? It's equally important to know your opponent(s) range when he call or check to you. What does this mean - is he most likely to check-raise, being trappy or weak? Most of these questions can't be answered by stats, you actually have to pay attention and take notes.
To answer this question is often not as easy as it sounds. Based on your observations of your opponent(s) tendencies, you have to make an educated guess. Is he likely to have a polarized range in this situation, and in that case; how well balanced is it between bluffs and value hands? Is he betting thin for value? It's equally important to know your opponent(s) range when he call or check to you. What does this mean - is he most likely to check-raise, being trappy or weak? Most of these questions can't be answered by stats, you actually have to pay attention and take notes.
What is my perceived range?
This is all about how your opponent(s) answers the first question - what you are able to represent. This is for obvious reasons extremely important against strong players. If a good hand reader has a reason to think a big part of your range is draws and the river bricks off, you are far more likely to get called by a weak hand than if a scary card did fall. Another case is if a "scary" card fall, but it doesn't help your range too much; be prepared to be called down light by a good player! To be conscious about your perceived range is important against weak players too. The secret is that also bad players thinks, just not in same way as you. Their answer could be something as simple as "he got to have AK", "he got to have a flush", "he never has anything" or something along those lines. To be able to get into your opponent's head has always been a mantra in poker, but is not such a romantic idea as it often sounds like - it's all about being able to use sound reasoning. One of the easiest and biggest mistakes many players do, is to transfer their own way of thinking to other players. They doesn't think in the same way as you! So don't blame them when they call your third barrel bluff (on a board that crush your range) with second pair.
How does my actual hand do?
This is an important question, and something many players struggles with. Maybe your K-high actually is quite likely to win a showdown or maybe your two pair-never is good. To be able to truly think in terms of relative and not absolute hand strength, is the key to finding the best moves. The tool you use to figure out when to go for pot-control and when to consider making a made hand into a bluff. How does your hand fit into the bigger picture? This is what you should base your decision on.
Putting it together
I think that the biggest problem for most is to put all of this together. You might say "he is weak most of the time, so I will get him of his hand with a few barrels" or "I look super-strong if I check-raise here". In the first case you might not think closely enough about what you are representing, in the second one you might ignore how strong your opponent's range is. You have to take everything into consideration before making your decision.
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